Based mostly on Evaluation of the Remaining Q2 GDPNow, a Recession Began in Could – Mish Speak
Analysis

Based mostly on Evaluation of the Remaining Q2 GDPNow, a Recession Began in Could – Mish Speak

Tomorrow, the BEA releases its preliminary (advance) estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2022.

The above chart reveals how the Atlanta Fed GDPNow mannequin sees issues. 

The GDPNow mannequin estimate for actual GDP progress (seasonally adjusted annual price) within the second quarter of 2022 is -1.2 p.c on July 27, up from -1.6 p.c on July 19. After current releases from the US Census Bureau and the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors, the nowcast of the contribution of stock funding to second-quarter actual GDP progress elevated from -2.50 share factors to -2.30 share factors, whereas the the nowcast of the contribution of the change in actual web exports to second-quarter actual GDP progress elevated from 0.18 share factors to 0.59 share factors.