2021 should be a bumper year for bonuses in investment banks and asset management. Unless, that is, you work in fixed income sales and trading. – If you work in fixed income sales and trading your bonus will be likely be flat at best and will fall at worst.
This is the new forecast from Wall Street compensation experts Johnson Associates. As per the chart below, Johnson Associates thinks most people in finance are on track for double-digit year-on-year increases in their size of their bonuses in 2021, and that only fixed income salespeople and traders will see their bonuses fall.
Johnson Associates doesn’t give much more detail than that, but the June report on the future of banks from JPMorgan’s banking analysts helps drill down into precisely which fixed income traders are likely to suffer in this year’s bonus round. – JPMorgan’s analysts predicted that rates, currencies and commodities desks in particular will see big drops in revenue this year, and that revenues in structured credit and credit will keep rising while emerging markets revenues will remain flat. The very worst bonuses for 2021 are therefore likely to fall in the first three fixed income product categories. It could be all the more painful in light of the increases elsewhere.
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